What to Expect After April 30

As many of you know first time home buyers are driving our current real estate market here in Kansas City.  First timers are buying homes which allow for move-ups with many other homeowners.  And all of this is artificially stimulated by our federal government’s home buyer’s tax credit plan started by the Bush administration and continued by Obama.  I’m not going to get political here, just give an opinion.

I have four pending home sales right now.  February and March have been busy as well.  I fully expect the bottom to fall out for 60-90 days post April 30.  Sure, we’ll have closings in May and June left over from April’s activity.  But new sales?  I expect a sharp drop.

If you are a home buyer you need to be in a hurry.  10% of a home’s value up to $8,000 returned to you post closing is nothing to sneeze at.  If you are a home seller you need to make sure your home is priced correctly…today!  You have 9 days to find a suitable buyer before what I believe will be a cooling off period for home buyers.

Yes.  People will still move, lose  jobs, get promotions and invest in real estate.  It will just be at a slower pace in May, June and July.  That’s my $0.02.

10 Comments

Filed under Misc. Real Estate

10 responses to “What to Expect After April 30

  1. I’ll be curious to watch what happens in your market, as it’s my opinion that area is a solid example of ‘normal’ — whatever that means. But you get my drift.

  2. I’m no Genie and my crystal ball is like yours. These are just guesses. Educated guesses. But guesses none-the-less.

    Take care follicley challenged one.

  3. Another Investor

    As a buyer of investment property, I hope all the first timers pack up and go home and foreclosures pick up after April 30th. I’m looking forward to saving more than $8,000 on future purchases. The current inventory looks like Macy’s after a 70 percent off clearance sale.

  4. LOL on the analogy for Macy’s. Should be ripe for investors. But not immediately after. I think it’ll take a month or two for sellers, once confident, get a little itchy.

    Of course in your neck of the woods that might be different.

  5. Another Investor

    The banks have been laying low, licking their wounds and recapitalizing. With much healthier balance sheets, a government approved short sale process and a more stable market, I think we will see the start of an orderly liquidation in some markets by the summer or early fall at the latest.

    In Phoenix, the trustee sale dates are shown as part of the tax info on the MLS. I am seeing a lot of older short sale listings with newly added sale dates. Lots of new listings are coming on the market with sale dates as well. My guess is the banks are serious now, and the short sales will move more quickly as will the foreclosures.

  6. Pat

    Military and Govt Employees coming back from overseas have until 30 April 2011 for the 1st time home owner program. A much small pool of buyers.

  7. AI – Does anyone trust the banks any longer?

    Pat – Thank you for that nugget. It may mean something in places like Northern Virginia or Suburban Maryland. But I doubt there will be 10 transactions here in KC.

  8. Another Investor

    I trust them to be bankers and to do what they see as in their best interest. That means forcing the sale of or taking back the properties pledged as collateral and writing off the losses as soon as the balance sheets and the real estate market allow.

    All of this comical government assistance/interference has only one purpose, and that’s to recapitalize the banking system. A lot of lip service is paid to the borrowers, because the retail borrowers vote and, well, borrow. But the banking system, commercial and investment, had to be preserved to keep the economy alive and functioning. Now that the balance sheets are stronger, orderly liquidation can begin.

    The smart investment banking folks on Wall Street found an opportunity to make a lot of money off this juggernaut, and the not so smart commercial bankers managed to stay in business. Our politicians are not as smart as the Wall Street guys or the commercial bankers and they are largely owned by the Wall Street folks anyway. That’s the price we taxpayers pay for the stupidity that is Washington.

  9. AI – Two things;

    1. I have long maintained that relationships with small, community orientated banks is the way to go. Banks do need to make bank decisions. But they should also be tied to their communities and the consequences of their decisions, favorable or not to any one individual.

    2. “Our politicians are not as smart as the Wall Street guys or the commercial bankers” is the root of the matter. Wall Street employs only the best and the brightest. While I think of myself as somewhat intelligent Wall Street employs those that are putting into practice things most of us have not even dreamed of yet. The best we can do is to monitor as closely as possible so as to catch up as quickly as we can. They create the rules. We just need to understand them. 🙂

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